Israel's Tactical Gains: Strategically Reshaping the Middle East

Over the past year, Israel has faced unprecedented challenges that have shaken its traditional national security doctrine to the core. Its long-standing security doctrine relied heavily on deterrence, containment, and early alerts of enemy intentions to attack. This doctrine influenced enemy behavior through sticks and carrots as an extension of the deterrence concept. The entire framework collapsed when the horrific events of October 7, a mass murder invasion that posed the gravest threat to Israel's continuity in decades, was unleashed by Hamas.[i]

Yet, from the depths of this crisis, Israel has embarked on a strategic campaign that is not only redefining its own security landscape but is also reshaping the geopolitical dynamics of the broader Middle East.

At the heart of this transformation in Israel’s security situation lies Israel's proactive effort to dismantle Iran's expansive network of proxy forces and military-terrorist capabilities. Beginning with Gaza in October 2023 and progressing to Lebanon in September and October 2024, the Israeli campaign decimated the two principal Iranian proxies—Hamas and Hezbollah—that had been established by Iran as part of its ring of fire around Israel.[ii]

In April and October this year, in response to direct Iranian missile barrages on Israel, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) went further and struck at the core of Iran's military infrastructure, specifically its air defenses and missile production programs.

The net assessment as of November 2024 is that Israel has significantly degraded Tehran's ability to project power in the region, both directly through its own capabilities and through its proxy network.

In order to reach this stage, Israel had to adapt to a situation of lengthy armed conflict, which spans a total of seven active fronts – Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank (these three involve ground forces), as well as deal with threats from Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran itself (through the Israeli Air Force).

Although some Israeli defense officials continue to speak of “deterrence” as one of the goals of this lengthy campaign, the real emphasis has been on severely degrading enemy capabilities while not relying too much on inherently limited assessments of enemy intentions – assessments that proved catastrophically unreliable on October 7, 2023.

Over the past year, Israel transitioned from a reactive stance to a proactive engagement policy that systematically removed the ability of Iranian proxies to send brigade-sized death squads over the border and to bombard Israeli civilian and military sites with rockets, missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles.  Iran, for its part, has found itself twice in direct confrontations with Israel, which contrasts with its preference for proxy, remote-controlled warfare. The latter strategy held that Iran could keep Israel bleeding on its borders while enjoying a sphere of immunity, as the Iranian nuclear program continued to stride towards breakout. That strategy has now faced significant erosion.

Iran's influence in the Middle East has long been bolstered by its support for proxy organizations, notably Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both of which, under generous Iranian financial and military assistance, evolved into fully-fledged armies capable of invading and holding Israeli territory to conduct mass murder and kidnapping missions.

Hezbollah’s own invasion plan, dubbed “Conquer the Galilee,”[iii] was, in fact, the blueprint and inspiration for Hamas’s October 7 attacks, and instead of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit making the first move, it was Hamas’s Radwan elite terror unit that heralded the collapse of Israel’s deterrence policy, and activating capabilities that Iran spent years installing in the Gaza Strip through its ally, Hamas.[iv] In Gaza, Israel launched comprehensive military operations that have effectively dismantled Hamas's military capabilities. What was once a formidable division-level force capable of launching invasions into southern Israel has been reduced to disjointed guerrilla cells. The IDF achieved this remarkable goal, overcoming many doubters, by penetrating deep into urban areas in Gaza, fortified with extensive tunnel networks and utilizing advanced, real-time intelligence to neutralize threats with precision.

At the start of October 2024, the ground campaign extended to Lebanon, where the IDF confronted Hezbollah's entrenched military infrastructure and uncovered enormous quantities of weapons and infrastructure that served as the Hezbollah–Radwan Unit invasion launchpad in southern Lebanon. IDF divisions engaged in ground maneuvers close to the Israeli–Lebanese border that uncovered and destroyed hidden command centers, extensive underground facilities, and vast caches of weapons. These actions have significantly undermined Hezbollah's “Conquer the Galilee” plan, which aimed to use thousands of Radwan commando terrorist units to infiltrate northern Israel.

Direct confrontation – Iran swerves from its proxy strategy

Perhaps the most audacious component of Israel's strategy has been its direct engagement with Iran. On October 26, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted precision airstrikes targeting Iranian air defense systems and ballistic missile production facilities. These strikes were a direct response to Iran's state-on-state ballistic missile attack on Israel earlier that month, on October 1.

The airstrikes not only demonstrated Israel's long-range operational capabilities but also inflicted substantial damage on Iran's missile program and reportedly left Iran entirely without active air defenses.

The significance of Iran’s Russian-made S-300 batteries and their ability to stand up to U.S.-made fighter jets – F-35s, F-16s, and F-15s – as well as what may have been Israeli munitions fired from those jets is profound.

Critical components essential for producing ballistic missiles were destroyed, including machinery for creating solid fuel—a key element in missile propulsion. The degradation of Iran's missile production capacity represents a significant setback for Tehran's military aspirations.

Israel has paid a very heavy price for this regional turn-around. In addition to the 1,200 Israeli civilians and security personnel murdered by Hamas on October 7, since October 27, 2023, the day that Israel’s ground offensive began in Gaza, over 800 IDF personnel have been killed in multiple conflicts. A significant number of civilians have been killed by rocket and UAV fire from Hezbollah in northern Israel. 

A year on from the beginning of the war, Israel's military successes have precipitated a noticeable shift in regional power dynamics. Iran, once seen as an ascending power with growing influence, is witnessing a dramatic wane in its regional clout. Conversely, Israel's decisive actions have reinforced its position as a formidable military power capable of shaping events beyond its borders – a fact that will not be missed by members of the moderate Sunni Arab world like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt.

These and other Middle Eastern actors have observed Israel's willingness to be the only power in the world able and willing to confront aggression by the Iranian axis – a willingness that aligns with these nations' existential concerns about Tehran's destabilizing activities. Public endorsements may be subdued due to political sensitivities, but there is a quiet recognition of shared interests in countering Iranian influence.

Iran's ambitions extend beyond regional hegemony; it has positioned itself as a key ally to global powers like Russia and China. Tehran's role as a major proliferator of drones and missiles has not only fueled conflicts in the Middle East but has also had implications for global security. Reports indicate that Iran has supplied Russia with significant quantities of ballistic drones and missiles and helped Russia build a weapons factory on Russian soil, bolstering Moscow's military capabilities amid its ongoing war against Ukraine.

Iranian-made UAVs are not only threatening Israeli cities but are also crashing into Kyiv, as Iran and China have circumvented American sanctions in oil sales from Tehran to Beijing.

By degrading Iran's ability to produce and distribute advanced weaponry, Israel's actions have global ramifications, disrupting the supply chains that have already brought bloodshed and destruction to Eastern Europe.

Iran's strategy to project power and influence relies on three primary pillars: its nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, and a network of proxy forces. While Iran's nuclear ambitions remain a concern - its nuclear facilities were not targeted in the recent strikes - the other two pillars have suffered significant setbacks.

A critical factor in Israel's recent successes has been its technological edge. The IDF's integration of digital network-centered situational awareness has revolutionized its combat operations. Real-time intelligence sharing and advanced command and control systems have allowed unprecedented coordination among military branches. This technological superiority has enabled Israel to effectively neutralize time-sensitive targets and adapt quickly to the fluid dynamics of asymmetric warfare.

The IDF’s situational awareness and ability to inject real-time intelligence on hostile and friendly force locations was largely possible thanks to the Torch X digital battlefield command system. Rafael’s Trophy active protection system enabled IDF tanks and armored personnel carriers to largely evade the fate of armor seen in the Russian–Ukrainian war and neutralized to a major degree the threat posed by anti-tank missiles and RPG fire.

Looking ahead, Israel appears poised to be the one to enforce and preserve its achievements. In Lebanon, it will likely be Israel that enforces United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of non-governmental armed forces south of the Litani River in Lebanon—a task that the Lebanese Armed Forces and UNIFIL have been totally unable to accomplish.

Israel is also likely to intensify efforts to intercept the resupply of Iranian weapons through Syria and to counter Hezbollah's attempts to develop its own arsenal within Lebanon.

Enhancing defense against drone attacks, which pose a unique challenge due to their size and flight characteristics, will be a priority for the Israeli home front – an effort that will be bolstered in the coming months with the arrival of the Iron Beam ground-based laser air defense systems.

Israel's tactical gains over the past year have catalyzed a strategic transformation in the Middle East. By proactively dismantling the military capabilities of Iran's proxies and directly challenging Tehran's own assets, Israel has not only enhanced its national security but has also altered the balance of power in the region.

Yaakov Lappin is the in-house analyst of the Miryam Institute and an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets and research centers. In the past, Yaakov worked as the defense correspondent for the Jerusalem Post. He is also a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University and a frequent guest commentator on international television news networks, including I24 News.

[i] Col. (res.) Shai Shabtai, “How Will the Swords of Iron War Change Israel's National Security Strategy and Doctrine?” Begin-Sadat Center For Strategic Studies,  January 9, 2023 https://besacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2252-Shabtai-National-Security-Strategy-and-Doctrine-After-Swords-of-Iron.pdf

[ii] Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror, “Iran’s ring of fire,” The Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, April 8, 2024, https://jiss.org.il/en/amidror-irans-ring-of-fire/ 

[iii] IDF official website, “Exposed: Hezbollah’s plan to ‘conquer the Galilee,’ The Israel Defense Forces, October 1, 2024, https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/exposed-hezbollah-s-plan-to-conquer-the-galilee/

[iv] Sarit Zehavi and Tal Beeri, “The Threat Posed by Hezbollah’s Commando Unit (Radwan Unit) to the State of Israel,” Alma Center, July 2, 2024, https://israel-alma.org/2024/07/02/the-threat-posed-by-hezbollahs-comando-unit-radwan-unit-to-the-state-of-israel/